Behind the Numbers: New-Home Sales Hit Record Low January 27th, 2012

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Another year, another record low for sales of new homes.

Sales unexpectedly fell in December, putting the brakes on three months of increases, indicating that the hard-hit sector might not have hit bottom after all.

Sales fell 2.2% from the prior month to a rate of 307,000 annualized. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires had forecast sales would tick up 1.9%. The total in 2010 was 323,000, the lowest amount since record keeping began in 1963.

Particularly concerning is that December’s prices plunged 12.8% from the prior year to $210,300, a blow to anyone hoping prices had stopped falling. While that figure can be distorted because of the geographic mix – homes in the Northeast cost more; the South is cheaper – prices must stabilize for any recovery to take hold.

The numbers depressed shares of home builders, which have risen dramatically as investors bet on a stronger spring selling season. Shares of NVR Inc., which reported a weak fourth quarter earlier Thursday, fell 6.5%, while luxury builder Toll Bros. declined 3.3%. The DJ U.S. Home Construction Index was shaved by 2.9%.

Home builders continue limping through the worst downturn in generations, one that has forced plenty builders out of business. They’re battling competition from bargain-priced foreclosures, jitters from consumers afraid to buy and tight lending standards from burned lenders.

But there is optimism that 2011 will be the absolute bottom and sales will pick up from the current anemic level. Of course, we’ve heard that before.

Here’s what industry watchers say:

Paul Diggle, economist, Capital Economics: “The fledgling recovery in housing market activity has yet to encompass the new homes market, where sales fell in December. The bottom line is that new home sales are unlikely to rise significantly from their current ultra-low level while they are having to compete with deeply discounted foreclosures and short sales.”

Aichi Amemiya, economist, Nomura: “Although recent housing-related economic releases have pointed to some improvement in the single-family housing market, today’s report surprised on the downside. This was the first decline in new home sales since August 2011 and the largest since July 2011.”

Dan Oppenheim, builder analyst, Credit Suisse: “We think the lower sales is a reflection of buyers’ continued uncertainty regarding the stability of home prices, the economy, and overall job security. We expect trends to remain choppy from month to month.”

Patrick Newport, US economist, IHS Global Insight: “The number of new homes for sale also ended the year at a record low at 157,000 (this is good news: inventory will have to be re-stocked once demand picks up). Inventory was at an all-time low at the end of the year in all four regions.”

Follow Dawn @dwotapka


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Mortgage Rates Rise on Stronger Housing Reports January 27th, 2012

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By Mia Lamar

Rates for fixed mortgages moved higher over the past week amid positive signals from the long-suffering U.S. housing market, according to Freddie Mac’s weekly survey of mortgage rates.

“Fixed mortgage rates ticked up this week as the housing market ended 2011 on a high note,” said Freddie Mac Chief Economist Frank Nothaft, noting encouraging data like a report that existing home sales rose 5% at the end of the year to 4.61 million houses, the largest amount since May 2010.

The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 3.98% for the week ended Thursday, up from 3.88% the previous week, though below 4.8% a year ago. Rates on 15-year fixed-rate mortgages averaged 3.24%, up from 3.17% last week and below 4.09% a year earlier.

Five-year Treasury-indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgages, or ARM, averaged 2.85%, up from 2.82% last week and below 3.7% a year ago. One-year Treasury-indexed ARM rates averaged 2.74%, matching the prior week and below 3.26% last year.

To obtain the rates, 30-year and 15-year fixed-rate mortgages required an average 0.7 percentage point and 0.8 percentage point payment, respectively. Five-year and one-year adjustable rate mortgages required an average 0.7 percentage point and 0.6 percentage point payment, respectively. A point is 1% of the mortgage amount, charged as prepaid interest.

Write to Mia Lamar at mia.lamar@dowjones.com


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Open Question: I’m 22 years old, and I have no friends? January 27th, 2012

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As a matter of fact, I don’t even have a life. I dropped out of community college, and I live with my parents. I have no friends and no education, my only degree is a GED and I don’t even have my own car to go anywhere with. I’m also in student loan debt and debt from an online college and I’m struggling to get a job. I’ve failed to get a job at the following places: Sears, Wal-Mart, Petsmart, and Lowes.

They brought me in for interviews but I was just too quiet and concerned about what they would think of me and not getting the job if they found out how much of a failure I am. I don’t want to be in an online college, and I want to go back to real school and graduate, but I feel like it’s going to take me years to do. I feel so lonely all the time and I have to fight myself to keep myself from being depressed and I don’t know how I’m going to take care of myself when my parent’s are gone.

I have no one to turn to and nowhere to go and I just want to be able to stand on my own two feet but it isn’t happening no matter how hard I try. I’m trying to learn some profitable skill like computer programming, but I can’t afford the books or buy them off the internet because I had to close my bank account when they started charging me money. I really want to learn another language too, but I’m being held back so much and my motivation keeps going away.

It’s because I know that even if I dedicate myself to these things, they won’t get me money and help me move out of my parent’s house. I have too much to learn and to little time to look for a way to provide for myself. I just want out of this situation and for things to stop getting worse. I’m constantly missing my childhood and watch cartoons occasionally to try to bring it back (I love Adventure Time) but it doesn’t take away all the stress and headaches and sadness that my position in life is causing me.

I have a guitar (It’s an electric Harmony, I can’t rock out like most people. :\) and I try to use that to make me happy for awhile but it only lasts as long as I can stand to play it. I don’t know what to do. Today I went to a boardroom meeting for a commission job, and that didn’t help, and my mother tells me a commission job is useless, although to me it’s money that I don’t have. I’m not above working fast food or being a janitor but I wouldn’t want to do those things forever.

I don’t even want that much, just to live on my own with a stable job that can help me with my hobbies (I’d even save up if I had to). I hate feeling like I’m being punished by the world and I want to go back to the days when I was 15 and lived in a neighborhood full of other kids my age, and friendship was a thing we didn’t even need to earn, it was just there. Now I’m an adult and that kind of thing is for “children” and being alone is the norm.

I didn’t go to high-school either, so I didn’t have a normal childhood. I was “homeschooled” because my parents put in middle-school at the middle of the year and wouldn’t let me re-take the same grade because I kept coming home crying. That’s because I was also being constantly harassed in home room by two kids for my weight (I lost it, and I’m skinnier now, although I still have a gut and squishy loose skin) and my science teacher was kind of a prick (which all the kids in my neighborhood actually AGREED with me on, because they had him too).

I want to make something out of my life. All I can look back upon right now is failure and an unconventional lifestyle where I wasted time at home all day. I want to resonate success and have people say great things about me. I don’t want to waste a single moment of my life being sad or alone and I want every second to have been spent doing something meaningful and productive. I don’t want to waste anymore time but life isn’t giving me a choice.

I can go on and on and on. I have built up so much thought MEDITATING in my parent’s house, BY MYSELF, away from all the young adults of the world and the outside world in general, just thinking all day long about everything and constantly being tormented by my own thoughts and being my only friend. I hate it. I hate it I hate it, I HATE ALL OF IT. I just want to feel like someone cares about or loves me right now, and I feel like I constantly need a hug even though I’m supposed to be a man. I feel like I’m being ABANDONED and LEFT BEHIND by the world and completely FORGOTTEN and being LEFT OUT on EVERYTHING.

It’s not fair and I just want to start over from the beginning and not be such a miserable fuck-up this time. I hate myself so much. I can’t like myself and I can’t become someone other people like and I don’t know what to do. I can’t even take my own life, because I’m too scared and people will say I’m s
Oh, and in the end, I have no one to blame but myself. I’m going to be 33 and still living with my parents and I can’t bear to put that on them or even live like that. Everyone is going to be looking down at me as the pathetic drop-out loser that still lives with his parents, even though I try to be a great guy. It’s just not going to matter because I haven’t accomplished anything.

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Resolved Question: Ihave applied for the HAMP loan Mod. 3 yrs now why cant I obtain help?You helped them.? January 27th, 2012

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I have applied thru ASC .and Wells Fargo, with no denial or answer,and (1) yr ago to date hired a Attorney ,no response HELP ME MR. OBAMA PLEASE, Febuary 1st they are going to take our home,Patricia and Bruce (626) 705-5035 13152 BRETON AVE. CHINO CA. 91710

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Open Question: Are Banks making the home owner? January 27th, 2012

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pay for the banks loans, loans created through the mis-use of the homeowners pledge/promissory note?

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Open Question: Are pledges used to trick people? January 27th, 2012

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A pledge made through a mortgage (dead pledge) and the promissory note of the home onwer being used by the banks to loan money to others? A promissory note being the reason the money was created for the HOME OWNER and NOT the banks??

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Open Question: Does an overdue college balance affect my credit? January 27th, 2012

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My last college (East Stroudsburg University of Pennsylvania) is #*($(*@#. I attended one year (Fall 2010 & Spring 2011) and came back home to Colorado for personal reason after Spring 2011 semester. I decided not to go back in middle of the summer and wrote a letter and called several times that I will NOT be attending anymore. I been requesting my transcript, but got nothing so I called. Apparently I owe them $15,000 and said I signed up for Summer 2011 and Fall 2011 which is bulls*it. I was in a internship all summer and attending a community college in Fall2011 and Spring 2012. ESU also said I am failing all my classes which is a big WTF?! duh, cause I’m not there. Anyways, I am in the process of getting this situated but will this balance affect my credit score? I have no loans and never took out a loan. This is the money I “owe” the school.

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Open Question: Can I eliminate PMI insurance on my rental property? January 27th, 2012

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My loan to value on my rental property is almost 24%. I purchased the home 13 years ago and it’s been a rental for about 12. Can I eliminate PMI even though it is not my primary residence?

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Open Question: I was able to buy a home in May 2010 because of 3 reasons, 1st the? January 27th, 2012

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prices of homes had fallen, 2nd the government had given the 8,000 dollar tax credit and 3rd because of the USDA loan. In less then 1 year the price of my home went down more then 20,000 dollars and in 2011 I believe the prices have dropped close to 40,000.. Now my house is worth almost half of what I paid for it. What can you do to help home owners who find themselves in these situations?

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Open Question: Tax return possible audit? January 27th, 2012

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for the last four years i’ve done my taxes at the same place and always would get really good money…. never really wonder why or ask why i would get good money back ( big mistake) turns out this guy that did my taxes for the las four years reported stuff that wasnt true! like i owe a house my own company that i gave money to charity, expensive maintanance in my car… didn’t know about this till i tryed applying for a home loan last year.
My question is, would i get audit if i do my taxes the right way this year? say if i dont put down all that crap this guy made up.

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